Tuesday, August 30, 2011

The next natural disaster to think about by Tony Green


Image of exploding Sun

Before Hurricane struck Katrina five years ago, the possibility of a direct hit from a Category 4 hurricane was overlooked as a doomsday scenario as experts pleaded with government officials to make the proper preparations. Unfortunately, the experts were right. 

Another theory which is not getting much attention is the impact a massive solar flare might cause on the electric grid. From time to time the sun produces flares which are a large energy release of electrons, ions, and atoms through the corona into space. By the way, next year solar activity is expected to reach peak intensity.

I used to belong to the group that paid no attention to this possibility until I received training on power transformers as part of my position as a sales engineer in the utility industry.

In short, a large flare would cause extreme currents to be induced within the transformer.  A flare could case enough internal damage to either ruin mechanically or deteriorate the insulation and or oil causing an immediate failure. The lead time is over a year for many power transformers so if a large number of transformers used to transport our electricity failed at the same time we might be in the dark for a long time.

Think about it, what if the grid was non-existent for four to six months before the power returned? How would people survive? The answer is they would survive in the same fashion as they did before the modern era. We‘d survive but I’m sure the event would involve some major change in all of our lifestyles as a result of the unexpected return to a time before universal access to electricity.

Does this sound impossible? Maybe you should think again on the next bright sunny day.

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